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AI, ChatGPT, GPT 3.0, and Humanity’s Future – Part 1: Downsides

Dec 152022

* Disclaimer: This article was written by a human being, not an AI. As of today, we now live in an age when this disclaimer is necessary.

The future is coming and is already here.

I’m obsessed with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. I’m a little bit in love with it. I’m also blown away by OpenAI’s GPT 3.0 playground interface.

This is big. Don’t listen to anyone who claims to be unimpressed. They’re either putting on an act or they don’t know what they’re talking about. The world is about to undergo a seismic change.

Any article about ChatGPT is obliged to hand-wring about the potential downsides. Let’s get that part out of the way now, in Part 1 of this series.

I’ll start with the standard fears that get mentioned a lot:

If oppressive governments, irresponsible corporations, or criminal organizations gain exclusive control of this kind of technology, dystopian sci-fi nightmares are a real possibility for our future.
There’s a danger we’re going to build an AI that ends up having its own agenda. (More on this below.)
Even if neither of those things happens, without question this technology is going to transform the economy. And it’s going to happen quickly. People are going to lose their jobs — starting not with people at the bottom of the economy, but writers, programmers, and (thanks to AI image generators like DALL-E 2) artists.

I’ve got three other concerns:

First, AI is going to make many tasks easier, which is potentially very good. But the real problem with modern life is not that it isn’t easy enough, but that it lacks meaning. Human beings derive meaning largely from social connections, which are fostered by the interdependence of individuals within communities. The technology that makes our lives easier also diminishes that interdependence. AI is going to make that problem worse.

Second, mental work is important. Our cognitive prowess depends upon constant mental exercise to keep us sharp. You must use your brain or lose it.

Examples abound of ways that technology has made us lazy. Jogging to work is better for your health, but driving your car is easier, so you do that. Doing arithmetic in your head is good mental exercise, but using the calculator on your phone is easier, so you do that.

Calculators let us outsource rote memorization and number processing. What calculators did for arithmetic, AI is about to do for everything. AI will let us outsource the rest of our intelligence, too: conceptual understanding, logical reasoning, lateral thinking, etc. AI will permit us to use our brains less, and that will hurt us. As AI gets smarter, human beings could get dumber.

And that’s a real problem, because when we expand our own neural networks through learning and experience — I’m talking about the literal neural networks in our brains — we invigorate our creativity, broaden our horizons, and unlock our humanity.

Third, with a supreme intelligence at your beck and call, it will be easy to become dependent. You won’t be able to live without it. This will be true particularly in domains where you’re competing with others who use AI. But even with simple decisions, like choosing what to eat for dinner, people might become so reliant on the AI that they forget how to function without it. This reliance will undermine human will and turn the human being into a sheep-like thing, a vessel for the will of the AI. The AI won’t need robot bodies; we will serve that function.

One of the concerns you often hear about AI is that it will develop its own agenda. The usual reply, which I previously found convincing, is that AI is just a program and will merely reflect the agenda of the people who program it.

I’m no longer so convinced. From the albeit limited amount I’ve been able to learn about the process that OpenAI used to build GPT 3.0, much of the program’s functionality arose spontaneously from the sheer size of the training data. GPT may not understand language in the same way that humans do, i.e. experientially. But it’s not just slapping together words based upon patterns. Some level of understanding is there.

And that is what is so remarkable to me about this achievement. ChatGPT is not like chatbots of the past, a silly toy that mimics understanding with a series of canned responses, like a Magic 8-Ball. It truly gets what you’re saying.

If AI is already this far along, what comes next?

Relax. We won.

Politics

Nov 212020

How come after we’ve won the 2020 Presidential election, we’re even now worrying about Trump? How is Trump, the loser, still dominating the news cycle?

One of the selling points for voting for Biden was that we would stop hearing that horrible name, Trump. The news media was supposed to stop reporting on his inane tweets. We were promised we’d stop seeing his despicable face on our TVs.

And while we’re talking about the bitter after-taste to our sweet victory…

How is it that 74 million of our fellow Americans voted to keep Trump in office, even in the light of his epic failure to protect the country against this pandemic (not to mention his countless other failures and crimes)?

And what about these ridiculous right-wing conspiracy theories we keep hearing about? How can so many people believe this stuff? And how come GOP leaders aren’t putting a stop to it? Have they no shame?

And isn’t the balkanization of the media leading us toward a civil war?

Relaaaaax. It’s not as bad as all that. Let’s put this moment in perspective…

(Continued below the fold…)

Oahu Mayor: Hanabusa!

Hawaii, Politics

Jul 242020

I wrote to Colleen Hanabusa with questions about her campaign. I wasn’t sure she’d respond. To my surprise, she replied within a couple of days and gave thoughtful answers to each and every question. And her answers are good!

I do wish her statement on Climate Change went further. She intends to protect infrastructure, which is good and necessary. But what about offering an aggressive plan to get the city to zero emissions? And currently her website literally fails to even mention “climate change” once.

But I’ve decided to vote for her. Here’s her letter:

Dear Mr. Bloom,

Thank you for your questions.

My answers to your questions are below, and you can also go to my website for additional information: https://www.colleenhanabusa.com/.

Do you believe that climate change is real? If so, what will you do about it.

Yes. In 2017, I hosted a Climate Change round table with climate change experts, including Dr. Chip Fletcher from UH, to discuss the impacts climate change will have on Hawaii. The goal was to bring general awareness to the issue and focus attention on the steps Hawaii must take to prepare for climate change: https://climateadaptation.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SLR-Report_Dec2017.pdf

As Mayor, I will use all the resources of my office, including the Office of Climate Change, Resiliency and Sustainability (Resiliency Office), to responsibly combat climate change and continue to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, during my first term, my highest priorities would be to: 1) finalize an assessment of the most vulnerable City and County infrastructure and a list prioritizing (ranking) City projects, and 2) develop a capital plan to begin implementation during my first term. The projected project implementation costs are significant and I will draw upon my state and federal experience to bring in state and federal resources to partner with and assist the City and County of Honolulu in implementing Honolulu’s resilience strategy.

Do you believe in listening to science and following the recommendations of public health officials? If so, how will that impact your approach to COVID-19?

Yes, I believe in science-based decision making when it comes to public health matters. It is important that we rely on facts and evidence when carrying out our duties as elected officials.

Do you believe that black lives matter? If so, how will that be reflected in your administration?

Yes. As a former member of the Democratic Caucus Leadership in the US House of Representatives, I have a strong record on equal rights. I was saddened this week by the passing of my dear friend, John Lewis. It is important that government leaders continue to educate our electorate on the issues and promote equality in all we do. There are important initiatives underway in Hawaii including, but not limited to, The Popolo Project. There are also local organizations with relevant information for those who desire to take an active role in eliminating racism in Hawaii: African Diversity Cultural Center Hawaiʻi, the Honolulu African American Film Festival, NAACP Honolulu Branch and the Hawaii Community Bail Fund. My goal as Mayor would be to help the NAACP: Eliminate disparate treatment of minorities in all aspects of law enforcement and criminal justice systems; Accelerate economic growth in our communities and eliminate existing racial and ethnic economic disparities; Ensure all students have access to an equal and high-quality education by eliminating education-related racial and ethnic disparities; Increase access to quality healthcare for all citizens and promote policies and practices to reduce health-related disparities for minorities; Increase minorities’ participation in the democratic process by removing roadblocks and disincentives and Promote fair and equitable human rights and economic justice for people of color across the globe.

Do you believe in food sustainability? If so, what will you do to preserve the island’s ag land? Do you have any plans to fight over-development?

Yes. I was Senate President when the “Hawaii 2050 Sustainability Plan” was published (2008), which included the following goal: Local foods and products: 30% of food consumed can be grown locally, 85% of fruits and vegetables we consume can be grown locally. When the plan was rolled out, my biggest concern then was that the plan would generate a significant buzz followed by the plan ending up on a bookshelf with little to no implementation.

In 2018, the Hawai‘i State Auditor issued a report entitled “Hawaii 2050 Sustainability Plan – Ten Year Measurement Update” (March 7, 2018), which found that many of the state’s sustainability efforts lacked coordination and the report called on the state to focus on implementation. While I always support good, robust, community-based planning, I prioritize implementation and I have a long history of working with Hawaii’s food and agricultural industry to provide the necessary resources to encourage and facilitate locally grown sustainable agriculture. I also support responsible development.

Do you believe that gun control is imperative to protect the lives of school children? If so, how do you intend for Honolulu to lead the nation in stopping guns from being used to take innocent lives?

Yes. I have been a strong advocate for reasonable, responsible, and constitutional gun control at both the state and federal levels. While the Second Amendment confers an individual right to bear arms, that right is not unlimited. For example, the Second Amendment does not bar States from adopting reasonable measures to reduce firearm violence. In fact, the Second Amendment preserves States’ authority to enact firearm restrictions in furtherance of public safety. States have primary responsibility for ensuring public safety, which includes a duty to reduce preventable firearm violence and to minimize fatalities and injuries. See United States v. Morrison, 529 US 598, 618 (2000) (“[W]e can think of no better example of the police power . . . reposed in the States [] than the suppression of violent crime and vindication of its victims.”). As Mayor, I will continue to advocate for policies at the local, state and federal levels which constitutionally protect our citizens, including our keiki, from gun violence.

Aloha,

Colleen Hanabusa

Who to vote for, Honolulu Mayor election 2020?

Hawaii, Politics

Jul 202020

The bad news: Most of the candidates are duds. Here’s my analysis of each one.

Mufi Hanneman is qualified. And I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for Mufi for TheBoat, which was a wonderful innovation, even though it ultimately failed. Gotta give him credit for trying. But Mufi is too pro-tourism. I don’t believe that the health of our elders can be trusted to him. Of course, he gives lip service to remaining vigilant in the fight against COVID-19. But he won’t protect our elders from COVID-19 if their well-being gets in the way of profits for the hotel industry. And wasn’t Mufi responsible for the huge mountains of garbage that rose up on the streets in my neighborhood? It took years to get that problem under control. And I can’t get over the fact that he was against gay rights (he opposed gay marriage). Boo!

Kym Pine is probably qualified. She has been accused in the past of being a gun-toting member of the Tea Party, but I can’t determine if this was true. It’s true that she was a Republican until 2016, and one must assume that she changed party affiliation in order to improve her prospects of winning elections in Hawaii. But since then she seems to have largely governed like a Democrat. She has done some impressive stuff on the City Council, some of it genuinely good. It’s hard, though, to find an ideological through-line in her legislative record. What does she stand for? And then there’s this: According to Civil Beat, in 2015 Pine approved Ho’opili after accepting $160,000 in campaign contributions from people connected with the project. Ho’opili is a huge housing project in Kapolei that required paving over some of the best farmland in the world. The developer made big bucks by convincing (bribing?) politicians to rezone agriculture land. SUPER YUCKY!

Rick Blangiardi was a football coach and TV executive. Sorry, that doesn’t qualify you to run a city of 980,000 people. Also, on his website he says on the subject of development, “I will streamline the planning and permitting process to save time and money for builders, and get construction underway faster.” Um… no thank you. That ain’t what we need right now. Politically, Blandiardi is an Independent. This might mean that he’s able to take the best ideas from both the Left and the Right. Or, it might mean he doesn’t have a coherent philosophy of his own, just a big bag of platitudes.

John Carroll is a conservative Republican in favor of deregulation. Nooooo! Interestingly, Carroll advocates a restoration of agriculture, which I like. And it doesn’t bother me that he’s 90 years old, either. But, we just can’t allow a Republican in office right now, ruining everything with their dumb theories. With the fiasco of the disastrous mismanagement of the pandemic by Republicans at all levels of government nation-wide, their party needs to be barred from power, until such time that they pull their heads out of their posterior noggin depositories. (The only Republican I might support right now is Djou, just because I believe he is competent and has genuine integrity. But he isn’t running.)

Ho Yin (Jason) Wong isn’t qualified and sounds a little nutty. He’s a relatively new transplant to Hawaii, which also counts against him. He wants to discontinue the rail project, and he has interesting ideas of what to do with the elevated tracks we’ve already built. What are those ideas, you ask? Put homeless people up there. Or prisoners. Or a technology institute. One of his other ideas it to give honeymooners money when they arrive on the island to spend here.

William “Bud” Stonebraker is a Trump Republican, it would appear. He doesn’t believe climate change is a problem for Hawaii. And he thinks that COVID-19 isn’t a big deal. Oy!

Audrey Keesing is hard to find info about. In the Civil Beat Q&A she gave some decent answers. The closest thing to a campaign website I can find is her Facebook page, which reveals that she’s a stand-up comedian and a former dancer. Sounds like an interesting person. But… not qualified for the job. At this point, though, I’m actually tempted to vote for her, only because the other choices are so dismal. If she has a background in Theatre, she’s probably cool.

Choon James has something going for her: an endorsement from Kioni Dudley. That counts for a lot in my book. But she just isn’t remotely qualified for the job. And while the platform on her website mentions a couple of good ideas, like capping property taxes for elderly owner-occupants, it leaves many vital questions unanswered.

Keith Amemiya‘s experience is a little better than some of the others: He was Senior VP of Island Holdings, whatever that is, and he has served on various boards and commissions; so at least he’s familiar with the way government works, and he has some experience running an organization. But does that make you ready to run a big city? Idunno. As for his priorities, I like what his website says about climate change. But his “Housing For All” plan sounds like the same horse poop we always hear from pro-development politicians, who keep giving sweetheart deals to developers under the guise of promoting affordable housing — the very developers who help fund their campaigns. YUCK. This article at Civil Beat is full of helpful info about Amemiya. The story about the condo he bought in Kakaako is super fishy and makes him sound sleazy as hell. It sounds like he helped the developer build in Kakaako, and then he was given the chance to buy one of the units for cheap. Ugh. That stinks of corruption. On that basis, I can’t vote for him.

Last but not least is Colleen Hanabusa. She’s qualified. There’s no question that she has the experience needed to understand the complexities of government. Where does she stand on the issues? It’s hard to know! Her website is wordy without being informative, and it isn’t clear or user-friendly. In the Civil Beat Q&A with her, she was asked a direct question about how Honolulu should prepare for a climate change. Her answer demonstrated knowledge about the topic, but she wasn’t able to articulate her vision. When asked how she would alleviate traffic congestion, she said only, “there must also be a reduction in the flow to downtown Honolulu.” Umm… DUH. That was assumed in the question. HOW will you reduce the flow? My main concerns with Hanabusa are: 1) that the lack of clarity in her answers might betray the lack of a clear vision, and this will translate into a weak administration that makes little progress on anything important; and 2) that the one area where she is clear is “affordable housing.” I’m cynical about so-called “affordable housing,” because I think in truth it translates to over-development, without solving any problems for poor people.

So, that’s all of the candidates. Notice how almost all them are conservatives?

How come we can’t have a candidate who’s a true-blue progressive liberal Democrat, with strong values, big ideas, a bold plan, and enough backbone to see it through?

The Pro-Death Republicans

Politics

Jun 292020

This isn’t rocket science.

We’re in the middle of a global pandemic. If we care about saving human lives, it’s pretty clear what we need to do:

Follow the advice of public health officials.

The fact that this turned into a conservative-vs-liberal thing is beyond bizarre. And the fact that the self-styled “Pro-Life” side is so vehemently against taking even modest steps to save lives, like wearing masks and social distancing, is maddening. And it shows who they really are.

Masks work. You should wear one when you’re near others in public. It’s basic human decency to ensure you don’t spread your germs onto them, possibly murdering them. If you don’t get that, you’re an ass hat.

The war against masks is a war against science, against truth, and against giving a crap about other people.

As for Trump, this quote from Russell Crowe in The Gladiator says it all:

The time for honoring yourself will soon be at an end.

Related reading: Zompist’s blog.

On Parallel Parking & Touching Bugs

Personal Philosophy, Psychology

Apr 282019

It’s a natural part of human psychology. When you fear something, you avoid it. When you avoid it, you reinforce the fear.

Anxiety is a tricky opponent. The action that makes you feel safest, evasion, actually gives the monster more power. Running away from the beast makes it stronger.

This is why it’s a good idea to develop a habit of pushing in to your discomfort. You still listen to those fearful feelings, but instead of running away, train yourself to run straight toward the things that scares you. Rewire the switch so it triggers the opposite behavior.

For phobias, exposure is the most effective therapy. Exposure must be done safely, of course. It can be in vivo or in the imagination, gradual or not so gradual. For claustrophobia, agoraphobia, acrophobia, and the other common phobias, exposure is key.

The same principle applies to lesser fears, the ones we don’t normally consider phobias, the ones we experience as mild discomfort.

If you are intimidated by parallel parking, capitalize upon every opportunity you can to parallel park. If you’re afraid of the dentist, make that appointment. If bugs horrify you, be sure to visit a bug zoo. (There’s a bug zoo in Victoria, Canada that is not to be missed.)

Avengers: End Game – Best Movie of All Time?

Movie Review

Apr 282019

This movie has a 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

I don’t think that’s high enough.

While the majority of critics gave the film a general thumbs up, many still felt a need to fault it. The Critics who gave it less than a perfect score have betrayed themselves as hacks, unable to really see what they were seeing.

I still remember the experience of watching the original three Star Wars movies in the theater. Each was magic. Many of the early Stephen Spielberg movies were like that, too. And then, years later, we had the Lord of the Rings trilogy.

It becomes harder and harder to make cinematic history. But what End Game pulled off wasn’t just history. It was a cinematic miracle.

Over the course of a decade, twenty-one films in eleven franchises introduced the MCU’s characters and themes, building like the movements of a symphony—exposition, development, recapitulation—melodies intertwining, some boisterous and thundering, some soft and dulcet, progressing slowly, patiently, and now, only now, finally culminating in this rollicking finale, this rhapsodic masterpiece, in which homage is paid to all themes going back to the beginning, and all the outstanding threads are triumphantly resolved.

Just… WOW!

People alive today who experience this film in the theaters will remember it for the rest of their lives. Future generations will appreciate the movie in their way, but they won’t be able to fully understand that experience.

Thinking Makes It So

Personal Philosophy, Psychology

Apr 232019

Shakespeare portrait Shakespeare said,

There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.

If this is true, then a sense of worry or bother doesn’t come from the world, but from your thoughts about the world. The world can’t disturb you, you can only disturb yourself.

There’s a personal philosophy based on this concept, which involves ideas from Stoicism, Taoism, Buddhism, Epicureanism, and the Cognitive Model underlying Cognitive Behavioral Therapy.

Stoicisim

Marcus Aurelius, the great Stoic, said,

The happiness of your life depends upon the quality of your thoughts.

He also said,

You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.

This revelation is the basis of the Cognitive Model, which is the theoretical underpinning of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy.

Marcus Aurelius also advised us to, “Dwell on the beauty of life.”

Taoism

I’m reading The Tao of Pooh by Benjamin Hoff again, a book that had a big impact upon my as a young college student. It puts Winnie the Pooh forward as an example of a sage and role-model. Got to love that!

From Taoism we take the idea of acceptance. Whereas other religious and philosophical traditions teach that our world is “fallen” or somehow bad, something to overcome, Taoists believe it is by nature just as it should be, and you bring yourself into harmony with it by accepting the nature each thing already has in it. Don’t struggle against the natural world, but flow through it like water, effortlessly.

Buddhism

From Buddhism we borrow the idea of mindfulness. If it is your thoughts about the world, and not the world itself, that govern your mood, then you might wish to tune into these thoughts so you can become aware of what’s going on upstairs. This “tuning in” is called mindfulness. Buddhists famously practice mindfulness within their forms of meditation.

Epicureanism

From Epicureanism we like the idea of enjoying the penalty-free pleasures. Those who dismiss Epicureanism as hedonism are misled by that word, “pleasure,” and are missing the deeper undercurrents in Epicurus’s philosophy. Epicurus was no sensualist; rather, he warned against hedonistic pleasures of the senses. What Epicurus sought was merely a pleasant life. Epicureans appreciate the deeper joys of life, the sustainable ones, like friendship, art, nature, travel, exercise, learning, and gaining mastery in skills.

Other Influences

Christianity’s Golden Rule and the concept of the good life from the humanistic psychology of Carl Rogers should also be thrown into the mix.

Putting it All Together

There’s some way to mash all of these ideas together into not just an intellectual philosophy, but a way of life.

This is what I’ve been working on a lot lately. Some days I feel I’m able to put it into practice successfully, at least at moments, and other days not.

Meat is DONE

Animal Rights, Environmentalism

Apr 152019

I am so excited!

It’s easy to get depressed by the setbacks we’re currently seeing in our country and around the world. Our gloating President and his coalition of goons have a transparently sinister agenda, and it’s deeply frustrating to see their villainy reaping rewards for them. The enemies of progress appear to be winning. This is an ugly time.

I’m still convinced, by the way, that Trump is going to win in 2020. We progressives have a sick habit of underestimating him, and we’re doing it again.

It’s hard to find hope in all the gloom.

But a couple of days ago, something wonderful happened to me. Something that ignited hope. Something I’m utterly convinced is going to change the world.

I ate a veggie burger, and it was good.

More below the fold.

Obama!

Politics

Oct 272018

I’ll say it again… Oh, how I love him…

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